This week's agricultural innovation search for information resources and news...
The Production, Accessibility & Consumption Model
Step by step
During the last 25 years and, in particular, since the 2008 financial crisis, the combination of population growth rates and inflation have resulted in inequalities in income levels rising. Today the USA and UK have levels of inequality that exceed many low income countries. This extreme is caused by the contrast with the highest incomes that exist in these countries. However, this masks the general fact that those in the lower income segments, in both high and low income countries, have faced an erosion in their purchasing power leading, eventually to destitution. Destitution is the inability to survive on nominal incomes because of insufficient purchasing power to secure essential food requirements. In low income countries the lack of social support mechanisms result in this leading to starvation, poor physical and intellectual development of children, stunting and a radical reduction in life expectancy. In higher income countries the social provisions and food banks that provide free food are common stop gaps. Many using food banks in "developed economies" are in work, but their real incomes are insufficient.
The PAC Model, a the supply side Production, Accessibility & Consumption Model of the economy provides a transparent explanation of why this happens. This calls attention to the need for macroeconomic policies that have a more effective control over inflation and population policies to encourage reductions in the rate of growth.
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Why Agenda 2030's Sustainable Development Goals are not being met?
Why is this series being extended?
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Why Agenda 2030's Sustainable Development Goals are not being met?
In 2015 the United Nations launched Agenda 2030 consisting of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) associated with over 230 indicators. Unlike the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which addressed specific goals related to low income countries, Agenda 2030 addressed countries of all levels of development.
After only four years, the United Nations has asked an expert group to assess progress. For such an ambitious task for goals to be met by 2030 - 11 years to go - four years is a bit early. However, there are signs that goals are not being met.
Reviewing the SDGs it is evident that there are some gaps and, indeed, some confusions.
In the case of low income countries, there are logical reasons why there are difficulties in meeting objectives. One reason, of relevance to this online publication, is that project and initiative designs need to result in actions that can overcome the principal constraints of population dynamics and inflation. This is principally a supply side and real incomes issue.
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DAC Evaluation Criteria and stakeholders
Recently a summary of a stakeholder consultation completed on the OECD DAC evaluation criteria for development assistance, was posted on the OECD website. This provides a list of factors considered to merit additional consideration in the DAC environment. These include taking Sustainable Development Goal requirements more into account, acknowledging the complexity of decision analysis and the need for systems models which represent the interconnection of relevant factors. Another area requiring change was cited to be the application of evaluation criteria to policy, programmes, institutional and strategic evaluations and systems. Cross-cutting themes on gender, equity and human rights were also mentioned. The last item referred to the need for support to provide stronger guidance for project implementation. Although not receiving strong feed back for change, rather the reverse, this list of items indicates an urgent need for specific changes.
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DAC Evaluation Criteria in the face of divergence
There has been a significant change in the types of projects funded under international aid. Although many consider the DAC evaluation criteria to be a good shortlist of esstential tests, the ability to apply them can be frustrated by a project's' objectives and design. This gives rise to doubts as to the efficacy of these criteria. This has created confusion and muddled thinking. The reason DAC evaluation criteria can become difficult to apply is that an increasing number of projects are divergent. Projects with more predictable outcomes are convergent and can be tested directly by DAC criteria. This raises the question as to why funding agencies are investing in, sometimes large, divergent projects which are difficult to evaluate and unlikely to achieve stated objectives?
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Report: International Symposium on Agricultural Innovation(ISAI) , FAO, November 2018
We are pleased to report on the completion of the FAO ISAI as an important event for agricultural innovation. We will be reporting on the main points raised and providing our own critiques from our technical panels in the coming weeks. We are currently in the process of preparing posts as well as releases from the Symposium.
The symposium concept note (June 2018)
Symposium Chair's summary (November 2018)
Development Intelligence report on new Navatec system upgrade
SEEL-Systems Engineering Economics Lab has announced the new upgrade of the Navatec System to be rolled out in January 2019 which contains an embedded library of utilities (online Apps). Navatec system is a cloud-based project cycle and portfolio management system provided as Software as a Service (SaaS). Utilities are advanced analytical tools that operate seamlessly on the Navatec platform with the best practice project due diligence design procedure (3DP) and with the Plasma database. These utilities quantify and optimize project impacts on SDG level indicators amongst other functions, including inputs to macroeconomic models developed to manage SDG policy-making. So far SEEL have not yet released information on the specific functions on their new series of utilities due to ongoing finalization of functional optimization to reduce cross-utility redundancies of recently added items.
Issues concerning SDGs and the emergence of practical solutions
According to OQSI, project managers, assessors and evaluators have reported problems with the handling of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in relating project activities to a large range of factors that need to be taken into account to meet these Goals.
We report on the OQSI's response and approach to extending their Due Diligence Design Procedure (3DP).
A surprising proportion of agricultural project cycle management "systems" are extremely inefficient in terms of maintaining information quality, timeliness of decisions, control of costs and overall oversight throughout the project cycle.There is a significant gap in performance between existing W3 technological capabilities and the the disproportionate use of old legacy programs and applications that impede the attainment of satisfactory levels of performance. We report on some recent findings.
The significant potential of portfolio data warehouses in revolutionizing agricultural innovation - A Note
In the last note concerning instructional simulation, portfolio data warehouses were identified as an important future development with potential for improving agricultural production and innovation. The APEurope Economic Unit provides an explanation of some of the more evident potential of portfolio data warehouses in revolutionizing agricultural innovation.
Better quality agricultural innovation, instructional simulation and reinforcement learning - A Note
Recently the term reinforcement learning has appeared in the realms of Artificial Intelligence (AI). However, this is an old concept dating back to the 1940s. We explore related processes and identify emerging techniques and methods that have been identified as being particularly relevant to agriultural innovation.
Economic development, innovation, decision analysis and locational state theory - A Note
The APEurope Economic Unit provide a short outline of how economic development results from learning and innovation. Innovation is defined to be a practical change in the way something is done for the first time in a specific location. The decisions that give rise to practical change are those best orientated by applying decision analysis as a basis for raising the probability that the outcome will be successful. The relationship between economic development, innovation and decision analysis is an important example of the validity of locational state theory.
Decision analysis as a basis for more effective agricultural innovation
The Decision Analysis series
We provide links to all of the 5 articles in the series on decision analysis by Hector McNeill, the director of the George Boole Foundation Ltd. To access click on the title of interest below:
Part 1: What is Decision Analysis and how does it work?
Decision analysis is a precise method to identify projects, support their design and understanding of their degrees of resilience and sustainability as well as support decision-making in the face of change during implementation. It has a major potential contribution to reducing exposure to risk and increasing the returns on investment to lender and donor funding of agricultural development and innovation projects. However, the procedures and methods used seldom feature as part of the training of agronomists, economists and those working in the scientific disciplines in the agricultural domain.
Part 2: Designing resilient projects
Decision analysis is a precise method to identify projects, support their design and understanding of their degrees of resilience and sustainability as well as support decision-making in the face of change during implementation.
It is often assumed that decision analysis is to be applied mainly to the design of a project. However, conditions change and the prevailing conditions at the end of a project can be very different from those planned for during the project design phase. Decision analysis remains an essential technique in ensuring that decisions taken during implementation can ensure appropriate and optimised adjustments to change. In this way the likelihood of better outcomes is increased.
Part 3: Tacit knowledge & performance
In terms of project sensitivity and risk analysis, there is a tendency to emphasize the performance impacts of changes that occur in the environment surrounding a project. It is often assumed that internal capabilities and processes are fixed. However, in reality, the capacity of human resources to improve project performance, changes all the time. The quantitative benefits of changes in human performance can be measured and forecast. This provides for a more transparent and realistic assessment of risks facing a project because the ability to compensate for any externally-imposed changes is enhanced.
Part 4: The cloud-based decision analysis tool box
The analytical techniques, software and hardware that are used to build project cycle and portfolio management systems have advanced significantly during the last 70 years. Since 1940, more than 350 programming languages were developed, averaging over 60 new additions each decade; currently only a handful dominate today's implementations. Hardware has undergone a revolution in terms of processing capacity, speed, dimensions, energy consumption and costs.
This article provides a summary of how the benefits of an advancing state-of-the-art of these factors are being integrated into Navatec System to create a next generation project cycle and portfolio management system.
Part 5: Paying for successful projects
Successful agricultural innovation that translates into real economic growth and enhanced community standards of living depends upon the identification of feasible projects. While emphasis is put on the methods to complete a project cycle, the capabilities of service providers to remain abreast of information technology developments and their ability to turn these into appropriate support for users is of vital importance.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries. Established in 1975, IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 50 countries. It is a research center of CGIAR, a worldwide partnership engaged in agricultural research for development.
Decision-Focused Agricultural Research
The article presents some examples of applications of Decision Analysis in agricultural development, demonstrating its ability to secure understanding of likely decision impacts, in the face of risk and imperfect information.
How much development data is enough?
In this article, Keith D. Shepherd sets out his reasoning that the data revolution offers enormous potential for improving decision-making at every level of development policy.
He also elaborates why gathering data is not enough; the information must also be managed and evaluated – and doing this properly can be far more complicated than the effort to collect it.
Innovation in Food and Agriculture
Effective agricultural knowledge and innovation systems ensure that the global food system provides adequate supplies of high quality food and non-food agricultural products, in a sustainable way. OECD work on innovation systems in food and agriculture explores the relationships between innovation, productivity and sustainability, and examines the respective roles for the government and the private sector in strengthening agricultural innovation systems and facilitating adoption at the farm and agri-food firm level.
As part of this work, a framework has been developed to review the impacts of a wide range of policies on the creation and adoption of innovations needed to improve productivity growth and sustainable use of natural resources, leading to concrete recommendations for each policy area. This framework is being applied to an increasing number of pilot countries and will be regularly revised to reflect new evidence and experience with implementation of these country reviews of “Innovation for agricultural productivity and sustainability”.
In parallel, quantitative analysis is being conducted to improve the evidence base for policy recommendations within the framework. Work with farm-level data aims to analyse the economic, policy and structural determinants of sustainable productivity growth, starting with the dairy sector.
Access to OECD publications on Innovation in Food & Agriculture
Two foundations team up to improve the quality of agricultural innovation through new service
Addressing the agricultural research-to-innovation challenge in low income countries
Two foundations have announced their agreement to provide a new service to improve the quality of agricultural innovation. The STRIDES Foundation and Navatec - a division of The George Boole Foundation - will collaborate on a new extension service that supports low income country researchers improve their knowledge acquisition on research and secure a better management of agricultural innovation projects. This collaboration is a culmination of over 45 years experience in the field of agricultural development and in particular agricultural research, project proposal assessment, project design, implementation management and evaluation. This experience has been gained in South America, Africa, Asia and transition economies in Central and Southern Europe.
This initiative addresses the important issue of poor project performance affecting around 50% of economic development projects. In 2016 the total aid budget from government and international agencies totalled some $135 billion and private donors contributed an additional $85 billion. Additional analyses undertaken more recently have come up with similar rates of project failure. Based on a weighted calculation of existing rates of project failure it is estimated that out of this total of $220 billion in international investment, somewhere between $35 billion and $70 billion will be wasted.
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Partnering to effectively strengthen whole value chains:
The focus of the Global Program for Grain Legumes & Dryland Cereals
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (17 February, 2018)
As part of the CGIAR Research Program on Grain Legumes and Dryland Cereals (GLDC) initiative over 150 participants from 25 countries met to identify better supportive partnering models. Dr Peter Carberry, Director of GLDC, explained that the Program’s approach is how it can add value to what is already being undertaken. Ethiopia’s Minister of Agriculture and Natural Resources, H.E. Dr. Eyasu Abraha Alle, who inaugurated GLDC, noted that, “grain legumes and dryland cereals are what have been termed as ‘Smart Food’ because they are: Good for you, Good for the planet, and Good for the farmer. However, they have received less attention and their value chains have not been as well developed. Through GLDC, we will build this whole industry from the consumer end and also develop the food processing industry and connect this right back to the farmers.” He added that, “Grain legumes and dryland cereals are well adapted to the drylands and naturally nutritious. I challenge the CRP to come up with a strategy for the drylands of Ethiopia. GLDC’s vision is to deliver improved rural livelihoods and nutrition by prioritizing demand-driven innovations to increase production and market opportunities along value chains. The program supports research for development purposes on six legumes (chickpea, cowpea, pigeonpea, groundnut, lentil and soybean) and three cereals (sorghum, pearl millet and finger millet). It will focus on the semi-arid and sub-humid dryland agro-ecologies of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The Program is a partnership of CGIAR centers, public and private organizations, governments and farmers worldwide.
What is an innovation system and what does it do?
An innovation system is about people, the knowledge, technology, infrastructure and cultures they have created or learned, who they work with, and what new ideas they are experimenting with.
The approach represents a major change in the way that the production of knowledge is viewed, and thus supported. It shifts attention away from research and the supply of science and technology, towards the whole process of innovation, in which research is only one element. Innovation is essentially the result of an interactive process between many actors. For our work, those are farmers, extension workers, researchers, seed companies, government officials, and many others. Individual organizations rarely possess all the knowledge necessary for the whole process of innovation.
It does not follow a linear path that begins with research, moves through the processes of development, design and engineering, and production, and ends with the successful introduction of new products and processes. Rather, it tends to involve continuous feedback loops between the different stages.
The actors we are engaged with focus on bringing new products, new processes, new policies, and new forms of organization into economic use. In their attempts to bring about change in agriculture, these multiple stakeholders are all part of what may be seen as agricultural innovation systems (AIS).
Innovation for Agriculture
Innnovation for Agriculture (IFA) is an English organization helping farmers make best use of existing and emerging knowledge… to help them meet the challenge of feeding the world and to improve the environment and animal welfare; creating fulfilling opportunities for current and future generations.
IFA is a consortium of English Agricultural Societies bringing you the latest developments in New Science & Technology. The members include: Devon County Agricultural Association, Royal Cheshire Agricultural Society, Driffield Agricultural Society, East of England Agricultural Society, Lincolnshire Agricultural Society, Newark and Nottinghamshire Agricultural Society, Newbury and District Agricultural Society, Staffordshire and Birmingham Agricultural Society, Suffolk Agricultural Association, Surrey County Agricultural Society, The Royal Agricultural Society of England, The Royal Bath and West of England Society, The Royal Cornwall Agricultural Association, The South of England Agricultural Society, The Three Counties Agricultural Society and Westmorland County Agricultural Society
To visit their site click on the image above.
Cranfield University & Agricultural Innovation
As a postgraduate only, research-intensive university, Cranfield is a British university that is post-graduate only and research-intensive. Their work is designe to deliver advanced solutions applying scientific expertise to the current and future challenges faced by agribusiness and our farming landscape. In 2013, the UK Government launched its Agricultural technologies strategy and invested some £10m in two new Centres for Agricultural Innovation at Cranfield. These are Agri-EPI, the Agricultural Engineering Precision Innovation Centre and CHAP, Crop Health and Protection. These combine Cransifeld's research and development capabilities in agriculture, in various configurations, to address the importance of soil resources, sensing and analysis of big-data. To visit their site click on the Cranfield logo.
The International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie) is an international grant-making NGO promoting evidence-informed development policies and programmes. We are the global leader in funding, producing and synthesising high-quality evidence of what works, for whom, how, why and at what cost. We believe that using better and policy-relevant evidence helps to make development more effective and improve people’s lives.
3ie evidence gap maps
Evidence gap maps (EGMs) aim to inform funding and research decision-making by compiling existing research accessibly in one place in a way that also shows limitations and gaps.
These maps are based on systematic methods to identify and describe completed and ongoing impact evaluations and systematic reviews. EGMs are structured around a framework of interventions and outcomes and include an interactive map that highlights areas with extensive, limited or non-existent evidence. They provide an overview of evidence on the effects of policies and programmes in a particular sector or thematic area. EGMs are available through an online interactive platform on the 3ie website that allows users to explore the full studies and reviews that are included.
About this evidence gap map report
This report provides the supporting documentation for the online EGM map on agricultural innovation developed to inform current 3ie grant-making in this area. The 3ie Agricultural Innovation grant programme is funded by UK aid through the Department for International Development, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the International Fund for Agricultural Development and the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa.
Click on the report image to access
Excerpt from introduction....
Agriculture is the main source of income and employment for 70 per cent of the world’s rural population (ILO 2016). Despite this, in 2014 there were only 0.19 hectares of arable land per person, thereby failing to provide farmers with sufficient opportunities to increase their productivity and income (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). The depletion and degradation of agricultural land and global water supplies are serious challenges that affect the sustainability of many farmers’ livelihoods. In regions such as South Asia, East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, the effects of low agricultural production can be seen strongly affecting both food security and household well-being.
The World Bank’s World development report 2008: agriculture for development highlighted the importance of the agriculture sector in international development, encouraging opportunities for economic growth, food security, poverty reduction, sustainable land management, climate change mitigation, and overall improvement in the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries (L&MICs). The report stated that a developing country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth, if originating from agriculture, is four times more likely to be effective in reducing poverty than other forms of domestic income (Byerlee et al. 2008). Policies that foster higher productivity and encourage climate-smart agriculture can have substantial sustainable impacts on poverty alleviation, food security and improved well-being, particularly for smallholder farmers (Asfaw et al. 2014).
Innovations in the field of agricultural production are key in helping determine best practices and technologies to help improve farmers’ livelihoods. Although many agricultural technologies are being created continuously, the effective dissemination of knowledge remains a challenge that inherently affects the productivity of many rural farmers. Farmers’ lack of access to resources and infrastructure, as well as a lack of capacity to support local agricultural production, can lead to unstable rural economies and declines in farmers’ well-being.
Improving agricultural innovations and technologies in developing countries is of paramount importance, as it offers new opportunities for increased agricultural production and income sustainability (Feder et al. 1985). In an analysis of the intersection between agriculture and development (Dethier and Effenberger 2012), the authors identify two challenges that hamper the sustainable growth of the agriculture sector in developing countries: the need for increased food productivity and the volatility of food prices. Thus, many agricultural innovations aim at targeting factors that contribute to improving production and quelling volatile markets. This includes improving access to credit and market information and land tenure security, encouraging diverse employment, and increasing supplies of complementary inputs (fertilisers and seeds) and infrastructures (irrigation and roads) (Feder et al. 1985).
The UK Government's Strategy for Agricultural Technologies has an objective of accelerating growth in the agricultural technology sector by funding four Centres for Agricultural Innovation that aim to advance the development, adoption and exploitation of new technologies in the agri-food sector.
Agrimetrics, is the first of four Agri-Tech Centres and is set up as:
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB)
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) is a statutory levy board, funded by UK farmers, growers and others in the supply chain and managed as an independent organization (independent of both commercial industry and of Government). The stated purpose of AHDB is to inspire UK farmers, growers and industry to succeed in a rapidly changing world. Their vision is for a world-class food and farming industry inspired by, and competing with the best.
AHDB believe that they can achieve their vision by focusing their efforts on four key priorities:
CAPACITY FOR CHANGE
Common Framework on Capacity Development for Agricultural Innovation Systems
The Tropical Agricultual Plan (TAP) is an action plan to develop capacity for agricultural innovation systems. This is supported by the Common Framework on Capacity Development for Agricultural Innovation Systems (CDAIS) an EU-funded action supported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of UN and AgriNatura.This programme has a TAPipedia or knowledge base which is worth visiting. To visit this section click on the TAPipedia image.
The TAP document describing the CDAIS, explains why this group consider agricultural innovation to be important as follows:
"In the context of a growing world population and climate change, agricultural innovation has a high potential to increase farmers’ income, improve food security and allow for a sustainable management of natural resources. As agriculture increasingly involves complex interactions of environmental and socio-economic factors with stakeholders at multiple levels, innovation needs an Agricultural Innovation Systems (AIS) perspective. The AIS comprises four main components: research and education, business and enterprise, bridging institutions, and the enabling environment"".
The pilot countries included in the Common Framework include:
Agricultural Innovation Systems : An Investment Sourcebook
This World Bank sourcebook draws on the emerging principles of Agricultural Innovation System (AIS) analysis and action to help to identify, design, and implement the investments, approaches, and complementary interventions that appear most likely to strengthen innovation systems and promote agricultural innovation and equitable growth. Although the sourcebook discusses why investments in AISs are becoming so important, it gives most of its attention to how specific approaches and practices can foster innovation in a range of contexts.
The sourcebook is targeted to the key operational staff in international and regional development agencies and national governments who design and implement lending projects and to the practitioners who design thematic programs and technical assistance packages. The sourcebook is also an important resource for the research community and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and may be a useful reference for the private sector, farmer organizations, and individuals with an interest in agricultural innovation. It concludes with details on the sourcebook's structure, a summary of the themes covered in each module, and a discussion of the cross-cutting themes treated throughout the sourcebook.
To secure a copy of this publication click on the image on the right.
10 Innovations for Climate Action in Agriculture
The Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) is a global research partnership for a food-secure future. CGIAR science is dedicated to reducing poverty, enhancing food and nutrition security, and improving natural resources and ecosystem services. Its research is carried out by 15 CGIAR Research Centers in close collaboration with hundreds of partners, including national and regional research institutes, civil society organizations, academia, development organizations and the private sector.
Agriculture needs to produce 60 percent more food by 2050 to feed a growing population, and these production increases need to occur even as the impacts of climate change are becoming evident in crop, livestock and fisheries systems globally. However, agriculture also contributes 19-29 percent of global man-made greenhouse gas emissions and will need to reduce emissions by 2030 in order to achieve the global goal of limiting warming to 2o Celsius. The CGIAR site lists the following to be the 10 Best Bet Innovations for Adaptation in Agriculture developed by their scientists (click to access):